13-05-2021

Drivers Of Land Use Change Scenarios

Drivers Of Land Use Change Scenarios For Europe
Drivers Of Land Use Change
Land Use Change Analysis
Drivers Of Land Use Land Cover Change

These raster land-use land class data represent yearly simulated future land use for the High Plains from 2009 to 2050 These data were developed using the FOREcasting SCEnarios (FORE-SCE) of future land cover model (Sohl and others, 2007; Sohl and Sayler 2008) for two (A2 and B2) of the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios and then processed using a Geographic Information System (GIS).

Drivers Of Land Use Change Scenarios For Europe

15/10/2018 - Article

How can we best use land to ensure food and nutritional security for all? It will be a hard, long and narrow road, and above all, it means a change in direction. This is demonstrated in a book on the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study, Land Use and Food Security in 2050: a Narrow Road. The book gives details of the four-year study by CIRAD and INRA, backed by a number of experts from all over the world.

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After an initial study on global food security in 2050 (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA switched their attention to a new foresight exercise, centring on land use in the light of the challenge posed by ensuring food security in 2050. The new study, entitled Agrimonde-Terra, pinpointed levers likely to modify existing land use patterns with a view to boosting food and nutritional security.

Just one scenario would ensure sustainable food security in 2050

Five scenarios were constructed, using a rigorous method based on an analysis of the direct and external causes of land use changes. Three of them, entitled 'Metropolization', 'Regionalization' and 'Households', are based on current trends identified in most world regions. The other two, entitled 'Healthy' and 'Communities' mean potential breaks that could modify the entire land use and food security system.

The study concluded that the 'Healthy' scenario was the only one that would ensure global food and nutritional security in 2050. The scenario would significantly reduce under-nutrition and tackle the problems of over-nutrition and associated diseases, without any significant expansion in agricultural areas. Agriculture serves to mitigate climate change, create jobs and preserve natural resources.

Changing direction in the coming decades

However, current trends in farming and food systems in most global regions point towards the 'Metropolization' scenario. This scenario is not sustainable in terms of land use and human health. It is a source of major tensions between regions and between countries, and within countries. A chapter is given over to the current trends pointing towards each of the scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa.

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According to the study, the challenge in the coming decades is thus to change direction and head towards sustainable land use and healthy food systems scenarios. This means systemic transformations, strong, coherent public policies in every sector and on every level, and coherent action on the part of all stakeholders.

The Agrimonde-Terra foresight study has provided a vast information base on land use, food systems and food security. It is a toolbox for stimulating debate andimagining new policies and innovations. It is intended to support decision-makers and give stakeholders, nongovernmental organizations and researchers the power to build a constructive dialogue about the future for land use and food security on a global, regional and national level.

Drivers Of Land Use Change

Land Use and Food Security in 2050: a Narrow Road
Agrimonde-Terra
Coordinated by C. Le Mouël, M. De Lattre-Gasquet, O. Mora
Editions Quae, 2018

Land Use Change Analysis

Drivers Of Land Use Land Cover Change

Methodological principles of Agrimonde-Terra

The work comprised four stages:

1. An analytical breakdown of the 'land use and food security' system
(chapter 1)
Land use changes result from complex interactions between direct and external drivers, and have consequences for food security, from a local to a global level. There are thus links between the various drivers of change, some of which may have short-term effects on land use while others have very long-term effects, with feedback loops that regulate the system. Five inseparable, dynamic complementary dimensions were identified to enable a comprehensive characterization of land use. A database and a model, GlobAgri-Agrimonde-Terra, were built (chapter 3).

2. A retrospective analysis and the construction of evolution hypotheses for each direct and external cause
(chapters 4 to 12).
Past land use pathways in the main world regions and existing land use scenarios were analysed (chapters 4 and 5). Each of the system's direct and external drivers was studied closely, to pinpoint past and emerging trends and possible breaks, and alternative hypotheses for evolution by 2050 were built. The hypotheses for five of the direct and external drivers were translated in quantitative terms and integrated into the GlobAgri-AgT model.

3. Construction of land use and food security scenarios
(chapter 13)
The scenarios were built in a coherent, rigorous and transparent fashion, by combining the hypotheses for each direct and external driver of change. Quickbooks r13 update. They describe the road between the current situation and 2050, and present the consequences of change for the five dimensions of land use and the four dimensions of food and nutritional security.

4. An analysis of the consequences of each scenario for land use and food security (chapters 14 to 16) and the public policy options (chapter 17).
The consequences were analysed both qualitatively and quantitatively. For the quantitative analysis, the GlobAgri-AgT model was used to simulate the impacts of the scenarios on areas, production and trade in the 14 regions considered. A chapter is devoted to sub-Saharan Africa (chapter 15). The last chapter (17) sets six overall public policy objectives and suggests the drivers required in public policies in order to achieve the 'Healthy' scenario.

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